Americans Doubt That the United States Effort in Iraq Is Improving; Public Concerned Civil War in Iraq a Real Possibility

ABC News
Americans Doubt That the United States Effort in Iraq Is Improving
Public Concerned Civil War in Iraq a Real Possibility
Analysis by JON COHEN

March 6, 2006 — - The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll shows broad public concern about civil war in Iraq and a sharp spike in public doubt that the United States is making progress there, both in terms of restoring civil order and establishing a democratic Iraqi government.

Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.

The changes have not had much impact on views on how long U.S. forces should remain in Iraq. But they completely reverse gains in public optimism about Iraq that immediately followed the parliamentary elections there in December.

Civil War?

Given the current unrest, 80 percent of Americans think it's likely that the Shiite-Sunni conflict will lead to civil war in Iraq. And a record 56 percent think the United States is not making significant progress in restoring civil order there -- up 19 points from its level shortly after the December election.

Americans also now evenly divide, 49 percent to 48 percent, on whether the United States is making progress in establishing a democratic government in Iraq.

After the December elections, in contrast, Americans, by a 2-1 ratio, had seen progress on the political front.

Civil War in Iraq

Likely 80%
Unlikely 17%

Despite these glummer views on progress in Iraq, views on the U.S. troop commitment are little changed. As was the case in December, a narrow majority supports decreasing the level of U.S. forces in Iraq, but fewer than two in 10 support an immediate withdrawal of all troops.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone with 1,000 adults interviewed during March 2-5. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.