Wednesday, September 29, 2004

What If...?

ftssoldier.blogspot.com

What If...?

If America were Iraq, What would it be Like?

President Bush said Tuesday that the Iraqis are refuting the pessimists and implied that things are improving in that country.

What would America look like if it were in Iraq's current situation? The population of the US is over 11 times that of Iraq, so a lot of statistics would have to be multiplied by that number.

Thus, violence killed 300 Iraqis last week, the equivalent proportionately of 3,300 Americans. What if 3,300 Americans had died in car bombings, grenade and rocket attacks, machine gun spray, and aerial bombardment in the last week? That is a number greater than the deaths on September 11, and if America were Iraq, it would be an ongoing, weekly or monthly toll.

And what if those deaths occurred all over the country, including in the capital of Washington, DC, but mainly above the Mason Dixon line, in Boston, Minneapolis, Salt Lake City, and San Francisco?

What if the grounds of the White House and the government buildings near the Mall were constantly taking mortar fire? What if almost nobody in the State Department at Foggy Bottom, the White House, or the Pentagon dared venture out of their buildings, and considered it dangerous to go over to Crystal City or Alexandria?

What if all the reporters for all the major television and print media were trapped in five-star hotels in Washington, DC and New York, unable to move more than a few blocks safely, and dependent on stringers to know what was happening in Oklahoma City and St. Louis? What if the only time they ventured into the Midwest was if they could be embedded in Army or National Guard units?

There are estimated to be some 25,000 guerrillas in Iraq engaged in concerted acts of violence. What if there were private armies totaling 275,000 men, armed with machine guns, assault rifles (legal again!), rocket-propelled grenades, and mortar launchers, hiding out in dangerous urban areas of cities all over the country? What if they completely controlled Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, Denver and Omaha, such that local police and Federal troops could not go into those cities?

What if, during the past year, the Secretary of State (Aqilah Hashemi), the President (Izzedine Salim), and the Attorney General (Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim) had all been assassinated?

What if all the cities in the US were wracked by a crime wave, with thousands of murders, kidnappings, burglaries, and carjackings in every major city every year?

What if the Air Force routinely (I mean daily or weekly) bombed Billings, Montana, Flint, Michigan, Watts in Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Anacostia in Washington, DC, and other urban areas, attempting to target "safe houses" of "criminal gangs", but inevitably killing a lot of children and little old ladies?

What if, from time to time, the US Army besieged Virginia Beach, killing hundreds of armed members of the Christian Soldiers?

What if entire platoons of the Christian Soldiers militia holed up in Arlington National Cemetery, and were bombarded by US Air Force warplanes daily, destroying thousands of graves and even pulverizing the Vietnam Memorial over on the Wall?

What if the National Council of Churches had to call for a popular march of thousands of believers to converge on the National Cathedral to stop the US Army from demolishing it to get at a rogue band of the Timothy McVeigh Memorial Brigades?

What if there were virtually no commercial air traffic in the country? What if many roads were highly dangerous, especially Interstate 95 from Richmond to Washington, DC, and I-95 and I-91 up to Boston? If you got on I-95 anywhere along that over 500-mile stretch, you would risk being carjacked, kidnapped, or having your car sprayed with machine gun fire.

What if no one had electricity for much more than 10 hours a day, and often less? What if it went off at unpredictable times, causing factories to grind to a halt and air conditioning to fail in the middle of the summer in Houston and Miami?

What if the Alaska pipeline were bombed and disabled at least monthly? What if unemployment hovered around 40%?

What if veterans of militia actions at Ruby Ridge and the Oklahoma City bombing were brought in to run the government on the theory that you need a tough guy in these times of crisis?

What if municipal elections were cancelled and cliques close to the new "president" quietly installed in the statehouses as "governors?"

What if several of these governors (especially of Montana and Wyoming) were assassinated soon after taking office or resigned when their children were taken hostage by guerrillas? What if the leader of the European Union maintained that the citizens of the United States are, under these conditions, refuting pessimism and that freedom and democracy are just around the corner?

Read More...

The ridiculous 32 page contract on the so-called debates

The so-called debates will be nothing more than a Question & Answer period, with the most bizarre rules ever for such a televised appearances of opposing candidates on the same stage.

Don't believe it? See the actual document for yourself:

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/deb04main/debateagreement.pdf

Read More...

Bush Ad Twists Kerry's Words on Iraq

factcheck.org

Bush Ad Twists Kerry's Words on Iraq

Selective use of Kerry's own words makes him look inconsistent on Iraq. A closer look gives a different picture.

Summary

Kerry has never wavered from his support for giving Bush authority to use force in Iraq, nor has he changed his position that he, as President, would not have gone to war without greater international support. But a Bush ad released Sept. 27 takes many of Kerry's words out of context to make him appear to be alternately praising the war and condemning it.

Here we present this highly misleading ad, along with what Kerry actually said, in full context.

Analysis

This ad is the most egregious example so far in the 2004 campaign of using edited quotes in a way that changes their meaning and misleads voters.

Bush-Cheney '04

"Searching:"

Bush: I'm George W. Bush and I approve this message.

Kerry: It was the right decision to disarm Saddam Hussein, and when the President made the decision I supported him.

Kerry: I don't believe the President took us to war as he should have.

Kerry: The winning of the war was brilliant.

Kerry: It's the wrong war, in the wrong place, at the wrong time.

Kerry: I have always said we may yet even find weapons of mass destruction.

Kerry: I actually did vote for the 87 billion dollars before I voted against it.

(Graphic: How can John Kerry protect us . . .when he doesn't even know where he stands?)

"Right Decision"

Kerry is shown saying it was "the right decision to disarm Saddam Hussein." What's left out is that he prefaced that by saying Bush should have made greater use of diplomacy to accomplish that.

The quote is from May 3, 2003, at the first debate among Democratic presidential contenders, barely three weeks after the fall of Baghdad. The question was from ABC's George Stephanopoulos:

Q: And Senator Kerry, the first question goes to you. On March 19th, President Bush ordered General Tommy Franks to execute the invasion of Iraq. Was that the right decision at the right time?

Kerry: George, I said at the time I would have preferred if we had given diplomacy a greater opportunity, but I think it was the right decision to disarm Saddam Hussein, and when the President made the decision, I supported him, and I support the fact that we did disarm him.

(Note: We have added the emphasis in these and the following quotes to draw attention to the context left out by the Bush ad.)

"As he should have"

The full "right decision" quote is actually quite consistent with the next Kerry quote, "I don't believe the President took us to war as he should have," which is from an interview with Chris Matthews on MSNBC's "Hardball" program Jan. 6, 2004:

Q: Do you think you belong to that category of candidates who more or less are unhappy with this war, the way it's been fought, along with General Clark, along with Howard Dean and not necessarily in companionship politically on the issue of the war with people like Lieberman, Edwards and Gephardt? Are you one of the anti-war candidates?

Kerry: I am -- Yes, in the sense that I don't believe the president took us to war as he should have, yes, absolutely. Do I think this president violated his promises to America? Yes, I do, Chris.

Q: Let me...

Kerry: Was there a way to hold Saddam Hussein accountable? You bet there was, and we should have done it right.

"Winning of the war was brilliant"

When Kerry said "the winning of the war was brilliant" he wasn't praising Bush for waging the war, he was praising the military for the way they accomplished the mission. He also repeated his criticism of Bush for failing to better plan for what came next. This was also on "Hardball," May 19:

Q: All this terrorism. If you were president, how would you stop it?

Kerry: Well, it's going to take some time to stop it, Chris, but we have an enormous amount of cooperation to build one other countries. I think the administration is not done enough of the hard work of diplomacy, reaching out to nations, building the kind of support network.

I think they clearly have dropped the ball with respect to the first month in the after -- winning the war. That winning of the war was brilliant and superb, and we all applaud our troops for doing what they did, but you've got to have the capacity to provide law and order on the streets and to provide the fundamentally services, and I believe American troops will be safer and America will pay less money if we have a broader coalition involved in that, including the United Nations.

"Wrong war, wrong place"

When Kerry called Iraq "the wrong war, in the wrong place, at the wrong time" he was once again criticizing Bush for failing to get more international support before invading Iraq. He criticized Bush for what he called a "phony coalition" of allies:

Kerry (Sept 6, 2004): You've got about 500 troops here, 500 troops there, and it's American troops that are 90 percent of the combat casualties, and it's American taxpayers that are paying 90 percent of the cost of the war . . . It's the wrong war, in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Earlier that same day at another campaign appearance he repeated pretty much what he's said all along:

Kerry (Sept 6, 2004): "I would not have done just one thing differently than the president on Iraq, I would have done everything differently than the president on Iraq. I said this from the beginning of the debate to the walk up to the war. I said, 'Mr. President, don't rush to war, take the time to build a legitimate coalition and have a plan to win the peace ."

We May Find WMD's

Nine months of fruitless searching have gone by since Kerry said on Dec. 14, 2003 that weapons of mass destruction might yet be found in Iraq. But what's most misleading about the Bush ad's editing is that it takes that remark out of a long-winded -- but still consistent -- explanation of Kerry's overall position on Iraq:

The exchange was on Fox News Sunday, with host Chris Wallace:

Q: But isn't it, in a realistic political sense going to be a much harder case to make to voters when you have that extraordinary mug shot of Saddam Hussein...looking like he's been dragged into a police line-up?

Kerry: Absolutely not, because I voted to hold Saddam Hussein accountable. I knew we had to hold him accountable. There's never been a doubt about that. But I also know that if we had done this with a sufficient number of troops, if we had done this in a globalized way, if we had brought more people to the table, we might have caught Saddam Hussein sooner. We might have had less loss of life. We would be in a stronger position today with respect to what we're doing.

Look, again, I repeat, Chris, I have always said we may yet even find weapons of mass destruction. I don't know the answer to that. We will still have to do the job of rebuilding Iraq and resolving the problem between Shias and Sunnis and Kurds. There are still difficult steps ahead of us.

The question that Americans want to know is, what is the best way to proceed? Not what is the most lonely and single-track ideological way to proceed. I believe the best way to proceed is to bring other countries to the table, get some of our troops out of the target, begin to share the burden.

The $87 Billion

The final quote is the one in which the Bush ad takes its best shot. Kerry not only said it, he did it. He voted for an alternative resolution that would have approved $87 billion in emergency funds for troops and reconstruction in Iraq and Afghanistan, but it was conditioned on repealing much of Bush's tax cuts, and it failed 57-42. On the key, up-or-down vote on the $87 billion itself Kerry was only one of 12 senators in opposition, along with the man who later become his running mate, Sen. John Edwards.

It's not only Bush who criticizes Kerry's inconsistency on that vote. Rival Democratic presidential candidate Joe Lieberman, a senator who also had voted to give Bush authority to use force in Iraq, said: "I don't know how John Kerry and John Edwards can say they supported the war but then opposed the funding for the troops who went to fight the war that the resolution that they supported authorized." Lieberman spoke at a candidate debate in Detroit Oct. 26, 2003.

Another Democratic rival who criticized Kerry for that vote was Rep. Dick Gephardt, who said beforehand that he would support the $87 billion "because it is the only responsible course of action. We must not send an ambiguous message to our troops, and we must not send an uncertain message to our friends and enemies in Iraq."

But aside from the $87 billion matter, this Bush ad is a textbook example of how to mislead voters through selective editing.

Sources

"Democratic Presidential Candidates Debate Sponsored by ABC News," Federal News Service, 3 May 2003.
"Interview with John Kerry," MSNBC Hardball with Chris Matthews, 6 Jan 2004.
"Interview with John Kerry," MSNBC Hardball with Chris Matthews, 19 May 2004.
Lois Romano and Paul Farhi, "Kerry Attacks Bush on Handling of Iraq," The Washington Post 7 Sep 2004: A8.
Calvin Woodward, "Kerry Slams 'Wrong War in the Wrong Place,'" The Associated Press , 6 Sep 2004.
Fox News Sunday, "Interview with John Kerry," 14 December 2003.
Adam Nagourney and Diane Cardwell, "Democrats in Debate Clash Over Iraq War," New York Times, 27 Oct 2003: A1.
Joe Klein, "Profiles in Convenience," Time magazine, 19 Oct 2003.

Read More...


Read More...


Read More...

CBS Censors the Truth about Bush’s Case for War

moveon.org

CBS Censors the Truth about Bush’s Case for War

President Bush based his famous and false claim that Iraq was seeking uranium from Niger on a set of crudely forged documents. For the last two years, no one has uncovered who falsified these documents, which lie at the heart of Bush's case for war.

Now, CBS' 60 Minutes program has uncovered new and important revelations about the Bush administration's reliance on the documents. But, in an unprecedented and astonishing move, CBS bumped the report back until after the election, saying it would be "inappropriate" to air the piece when it might interfere with the political season.

It's outrageous that a major TV news outlet would censor an important piece of news for political reasons. Especially since this report has met CBS' standards for accuracy — it's true. One can only assume that CBS is buckling under pressure from the right — and that's just plain wrong.

Demand that CBS air its 60 Minutes report on Iraq before November 2nd.

Call CBS and its parent company, Viacom, now, at:

Sumner Redstone, Chairman, Viacom
(212) 258-6000

Les Moonves, Chairman of CBS; co-President & co-CEO, Viacom
(323) 575-2345

Andrew Heyward, President, CBS News
(212) 975-3247 or
(212) 975-4321

If you don't get through, you can write to CBS at:
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/feedback/fb_news_form.shtml

You can also contact CBS' local affiliates, which are linked here:
http://newslink.org/cbstele.html

Urge CBS to reverse its decision and air the 60 Minutes piece on Iraq before the November 2nd election. Let them know how important it is that they not censor the news.

Read More...

WHY DOES TOP POLLSTER KEEP GETTING IT WRONG?

Moveon.org

WHY DOES TOP POLLSTER KEEP GETTING IT WRONG?

THIS JUST IN: IT’S DOWN TO THEWIRE

Excluding Gallup, 14 national polls of likely voters (all released in the last two weeks) show Bush with an average lead of only about three percent.

If John Kerry believed in the Gallup poll, he might as well give up.

A couple of weeks ago, a highly publicized Gallup poll of “likely voters” showed President Bush with a staggering 14-point lead.

But wait a minute. Seven other polls of likely voters were released that same week. On average, they showed Bush with just a three-point lead. No one else came close to Gallup’s figures. And this isn’t the first time the prestigious Gallup survey has been out on a limb with pro-Bush findings.

What’s going on here? It’s not exactly that Gallup’s cooking the books. Rather, they are refusing to fix a longstanding problem with their likely voter methodology.

Simply put, Gallup’s methodology has predicted lately that Republican turnout on Election Day is likely to exceed Democrats’ by six to eight percentage points. But exit polls show otherwise: in each of the last two Presidential elections, Democratic turnout exceeded Republican by four to five points. That discrepancy alone can account for nearly all of Bush’s phantom 14-point lead.

This is more than just a numbers game. Poll results profoundly affect a campaign’s news coverage as well as the public’s perception of the candidates.

Two media outlets, CNN and USA Today, bear special responsibility for this problem. They pay for many of Gallup’s surveys, in exchange for the right to add their names to the polls and trumpet the results first. They wind up acting as unquestioning promotional partners, rather than as critical journalists.

The public would be better served if journalists asked some tough questions, beginning with the Gallup Organization, which has been asked to select the audience for the Bush-Kerry “town meeting” debate on October 8.

George Gallup Jr., son of the poll’s founder, was the longtime head of the company and now directs its non-profit research center.Why hasn’t he pushed for an update of the company’s likely voter modeling, which his own father pioneered in the 1950s?

Gallup, who is a devout evangelical Christian, has been quoted as calling his polling “a kind of ministry.” And a few months ago, he said “the most profound purpose of polls is to see how people are responding to God.”

We thought the purpose is to faithfully and factually report public opinion.

Read More...

How to Debate George Bush

The New York Times
September 29, 2004

How to Debate George Bush
By AL GORE

This year, as usual, the dominance of attack advertisements on television has made it hard to get a clear picture of where the candidates stand. But the same media revolution that brought us the 30-second commercial also brought us televised presidential debates - and ever since the first of them 44 years ago, they have played a crucial role in shaping voters' opinions of the candidates.

America has long been devoted to the clash between opposing advocates as the best way to evaluate information. In this era of media clutter, it is all the more important for voters to have this moment of simple clarity when the candidates appear before them stripped of advisers, sound bites and media spin.

My advice to John Kerry is simple: be prepared for the toughest debates of your career. While George Bush's campaign has made "lowering expectations" into a high art form, the record is clear - he's a skilled debater who uses the format to his advantage. There is no reason to expect any less this time around. And if anyone truly has "low expectations" for an incumbent president, that in itself is an issue.

But more important than his record as a debater is Mr. Bush's record as a president. And therein lies the true opportunity for John Kerry - because notwithstanding the president's political skills, his performance in office amounts to a catastrophic failure. And the debates represent a time to hold him to account. For the voters, these debates represent an opportunity to explore four relevant questions: Is America on the right course today, or are we off track? If we are headed in the wrong direction, what happened and who is responsible? How do we get back on the right path to a safer, more secure, more prosperous America? And, finally, who is best able to lead us to that path?

A clear majority of Americans believe that we are heading in the wrong direction. The reasons are obvious. The situation in Iraq is getting worse. Osama bin Laden is alive and plotting against us. About 2.7 million manufacturing jobs have been lost. Forty-five million Americans are living without health insurance. Medicare premiums are the highest they've ever been. Environmental protections have been eviscerated.

In the coming debates, Senator Kerry has an opportunity to show voters that today American troops and American taxpayers are shouldering a huge burden with no end in sight because Mr. Bush took us to war on false premises and with no plan to win the peace. Mr. Kerry has an opportunity to demonstrate the connection between job losses and Mr. Bush's colossal tax break for the wealthy. And he can remind voters that Mr. Bush has broken his pledge to expand access to health care.

Senator Kerry can also use these debates to speak directly to voters and lay out a hopeful vision for our future. If voters walk away from the debates with a better understanding of where our country is, how we got here and where each candidate will lead us if elected, then America will be the better for it. The debate tomorrow should not seek to discover which candidate would be more fun to have a beer with. As Jon Stewart of the "The Daily Show'' nicely put in 2000, "I want my president to be the designated driver.''

The debates aren't a time for rhetorical tricks. It's a time for an honest contest of ideas. Mr. Bush's unwillingness to admit any mistakes may score him style points. But it makes hiring him for four more years too dangerous a risk. Stubbornness is not strength; and Mr. Kerry must show voters that there is a distinction between the two.

If Mr. Bush is not willing to concede that things are going from bad to worse in Iraq, can he be trusted to make the decisions necessary to change the situation? If he insists on continuing to pretend it is "mission accomplished," can he accomplish the mission? And if the Bush administration has been so thoroughly wrong on absolutely everything it predicted about Iraq, with the horrible consequences that have followed, should it be trusted with another four years?

The biggest single difference between the debates this year and four years ago is that President Bush cannot simply make promises. He has a record. And I hope that voters will recall the last time Mr. Bush stood on stage for a presidential debate. If elected, he said, he would support allowing Americans to buy prescription drugs from Canada. He promised that his tax cuts would create millions of new jobs. He vowed to end partisan bickering in Washington. Above all, he pledged that if he put American troops into combat: "The force must be strong enough so that the mission can be accomplished. And the exit strategy needs to be well defined."

Comparing these grandiose promises to his failed record, it's enough to make anyone want to, well, sigh.

Al Gore, vice president from 1993 to 2001, was the Democratic presidential nominee in 2000.

Read More...

A Fast Finisher's Reputation Now Faces the Ultimate Test

The New York Times
September 29, 2004

JOHN KERRY'S JOURNEY
A Fast Finisher's Reputation Now Faces the Ultimate Test
By TODD S. PURDUM

In 1996, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts was struggling to keep his job in the face of a stiff challenge by his state's popular, aw-shucks Republican governor, William F. Weld, when midway through a series of televised debates, he began a confession that suddenly became a boast.

"I'm very well aware that when God made me, one of the debits he gave was sort of an overlevel of intensity, maybe an overlevel of earnestness," Mr. Kerry said that August in the fourth of eight debates. "I don't sort of wear every part of me on my sleeve as easily as some people do, and I know that. On the other hand, what I do know about myself is that when you have a fight, I'm a good person to be in a foxhole with, and I know that we're in a fight right now."

Eight years later, Mr. Kerry is in the fight of his political life, against President Bush, and he and his supporters are counting on the reputation he cemented in that 1996 campaign and again in the Democratic primaries this year as a candidate who runs best from behind, a political Seabiscuit who pulls ahead after from his anxiety-producing slow starts.

"If this were a boxing match, he might be losing on the cards for the first five or six rounds," said Dan Payne, a media consultant in Boston and a veteran of several Kerry campaigns. "And then when he realizes, 'I could lose this if I don't do something more forceful,' then he comes to life and is able to finish off an opponent."

Mr. Payne added: "It's the times leading up to those moments that get him in trouble. He puts it on automatic pilot."

As Mr. Kerry approaches this campaign's home stretch, with the first debate tomorrow night, there is much in his past to suggest that he believes elections are won in the endgame, that he holds back on purpose and begins concentrating intently on the race only when he believes the voters are, too. It remains to be seen whether an approach that has worked in Mr. Kerry's liberal home state or with Democratic primary voters eager to anoint a consensus candidate will be effective in a national election, but Mr. Kerry has little choice but to perform at his peak now.

He clearly is trying. Over the past month, he has retooled his campaign staff, sharpened his attacks on Mr. Bush and set aside a planned focus on the economy in favor of a steady critique of the president's handling of the war in Iraq that has produced blunt headlines and more prominent news coverage.

Mr. Kerry has been in similar spots before. By most accounts, he did not come alive in his 1996 race against Mr. Weld until their fifth debate, in mid-September. In that encounter, he unleashed a string of one-liners and ripostes, attacking Mr. Weld as an equivocator by invoking the name of the governor's sometime adviser, who had just resigned from President Bill Clinton's re-election campaign after disclosure of an affair with a prostitute. "Governor," Mr. Kerry said, "you switch your positions faster than your friend Dick Morris." Mr. Weld's only rebuttal was a blush.

Afterward, Mr. Kerry told The Boston Herald: "It's time to rock and roll. This is the time when people are listening. I've got to focus." Seven weeks later, Mr. Kerry won by seven percentage points, in a state where Mr. Clinton beat Bob Dole by 33 points.

At least one candidate who has faced Mr. Kerry says his approach is fully as much strategy as it is alchemy. James Shannon, who worked on Mr. Kerry's only failed race, in 1972, and lost to him in the Democratic Senate primary in 1984, said Mr. Kerry's reputation as a good closer was deserved but oversimplified. Mr. Shannon said he thought Mr. Kerry's approach derived from that 1972 Congressional race in suburban Lowell, Mass., in which a poll several weeks before the election showed him ahead of his Republican opponent by nearly 30 points. Instead, Mr. Kerry wound up losing, after badly misjudging the impact of last-minute attacks by his opponent and the hostile local newspaper.

Mr. Kerry "seemed to be sailing into victory and had the thing snatched away from him," Mr. Shannon said. "You can talk about 'the closer,' yeah, but I think that does him a disservice, as if he can pull a rabbit out of the hat. It has to do with the importance of sharpening your focus at the end, and the fact that the race is defined at the end.''

It is not entirely clear just how defined the current contest is. For much of the past year, polls have shown Mr. Bush with approval ratings that few incumbents would envy but Mr. Kerry having trouble capitalizing on that. Recent polls have shown Mr. Bush holding an edge, though there is volatility in the electorate that Mr. Kerry might yet exploit.

Many of Mr. Kerry's oldest friends express exasperation at his willingness to drift at times in his campaigns. His tendency to focus best in the crunch is a longtime habit, dating at least to his days as a champion debater at Yale, and one that cannot be explained as a result of mere procrastination or inattention.

"He was so incredibly overcommitted to activities, it was hard getting him together," said Bradford Snell, one of his debate partners in those days. "At 11 or 12 midnight the day before, I'd finally be able to corral him. When his back is up against the wall, the adrenaline starts flowing and he just does phenomenal things. It's a last-minute, rush-type operation."

In debates, Mr. Snell said, Mr. Kerry was "able to fully comprehend the other side and find the flaw and pull it apart. One of the worst things you can do is get too programmed. You must listen to the other side in order to really prevail. I remember a couple of times, I'd make some suggestions and he'd just say, 'I've got this one.' It seemed as if he'd prepared for months."

Mr. Bush's aides have gone out of their way in recent weeks to talk up Mr. Kerry's prowess as a debater, with the president's strategist Matthew Dowd calling Mr. Kerry "the best debater ever to run for president," and "better than Cicero." In fact, the record shows that Mr. Kerry, so often windy in prepared speeches, can be succinct in spontaneous exchanges.

In his second debate against Mr. Weld in 1996, Mr. Kerry interrupted him at one point by saying, "There you go again," Ronald Reagan's famous line against Jimmy Carter in 1980.

"I knew Ronald Reagan," Mr. Weld replied, echoing Lloyd Bentsen's invocation of his acquaintance with John F. Kennedy in putting down Dan Quayle in 1988, only to have Mr. Kerry shoot back, "So did I, and we don't need another Ronald Reagan type in Washington."

In their first debate, with the mother of a police officer who had been killed in the line of duty sitting in the audience, Mr. Weld demanded that Mr. Kerry defend his opposition to the death penalty and explain "why the life of the man who murdered her son is worth more than the life of her son."

Mr. Kerry, a former prosecutor, replied quietly: "It's not worth more. It's not worth anything. It's scum that ought to be thrown in jail for the rest of its life." But, he added, in an unmistakable reference to his service in Vietnam (a war that Mr. Weld had avoided on account of a bad back), "I've been opposed to the death penalty. I know something about killing. I don't like killing. I don't think a state honors life by turning around and sanctioning killing."

In 32 years, Mr. Kerry has lost only one campaign - that first race for Congress - and has seldom lost a debate. He hates to lose.

Forty years ago this fall, The Yale Daily News reported that Mr. Kerry's team had lost a debate with Cambridge University, conducted by trans-Atlantic telephone cable, in which Mr. Kerry's side argued against the proposition that "Red China should be admitted to the United Nations." Days later, Mr. Kerry wrote a letter to the editor, protesting that description on the grounds that the audiences were lopsided, with the Cambridge group consisting almost entirely of United Nations supporters.

"For this reason," Mr. Kerry wrote then, "the vote was merely a token one" and he added, "The debate was neither won nor lost by either side."

But from his next debate till Nov. 2, Mr. Kerry cannot be content with a draw.

Read More...

Hurdles Remain for American Voters Who Live Overseas

The New York Times
September 29, 2004

Hurdles Remain for American Voters Who Live Overseas
By MICHAEL MOSS

Four years after overseas voting became a battleground in the presidential election in Florida, millions of civilians and soldiers living abroad still face a bewildering and unwieldy system of absentee balloting that could prevent their votes from being counted.

Election officials concede that tens of thousands of Americans overseas might not get ballots in time to cast votes. Late primaries and legal wrangling caused election offices in at least 8 of the 15 swing states to fail to mail absentee ballots by Sept. 19, a cutoff date officials say is necessary to ensure that they can be returned on time, a survey by The New York Times shows. In Florida in 2000, late-arriving ballots became a divisive issue when some were counted and others were disqualified.

The tardy ballots are just one of several setbacks or missteps that have affected the ability of the estimated 4.4 million eligible voters overseas to participate in the presidential election. Some have been unable to send their registrations to a Pentagon contractor's computers, which are clogged by thousands of voter forms. Others were denied access to a Web site designed to help Americans abroad vote. And many voters simply have had trouble navigating the rules and methods that determine how and when to register and vote and that vary by state.

"I found it so convoluted I gave up," says Alex Campos, a management consultant in London who repeatedly tried to register using the Pentagon program, without success.

To help speed the balloting process, federal officials activated a new system last week in which voters can obtain absentee ballots instantly through the Internet. But the Web site, myballot.mil, will be offered only to members of the military and their families, quickly raising concerns about fairness in a program that the Pentagon has been directed to run for civilians as well. In addition, 23 states have already declined to join the system for various reasons, including security, according to Pentagon and state officials.

People on both sides vying for the overseas vote say the balloting system remains so flawed that some predict legal battles if these votes prove crucial to the outcome of the presidential race.

"If it's a close election, one can expect a great deal of challenges given the confused state of this complex matrix of rules and regulations, and the lack of central leadership in their implementation," said Jim Brenner, the executive director of Americans Overseas for Kerry.

In recent interviews, Pentagon officials defended their voting assistance effort and said the new Internet ballot retrieval system was only one item in a menu of services the program was using to help both military and civilian voters.

"There is no favoritism," said Scott Wiedmann, the program's deputy director, adding that the new system must be limited to the military because the identities only of service members can be verified.

Other efforts under way to help overseas voters include speeding mail delivery for people in the military and a special federal ballot that all voters can request if their regular ballot does not arrive from their state on time. But election volunteers working overseas say that many voters do not know the ballots exist, or if they do, do not know how to use them.

Republicans and Democrats are pushing hard to solicit these voters after some assessments indicating that President Bush's support among the estimated 500,000 members of the military and their families overseas may have weakened. There is little direct polling of soldiers, but Peter D. Feaver, a sociology professor at Duke University, says surveys have shown that while most officers are staunchly Republican, the rank and file newest to the military has been more closely divided between the parties.

"Kerry will do better in this group than Gore did,'' Mr. Feaver said, "but he will not reverse the Bush advantage."

There is also little polling of the 3.9 million civilians abroad. But last month, a Zogby poll of Americans who had passports found that they supported John Kerry over Mr. Bush, 58 percent to 35 percent.

The concern about states not getting their overseas ballots out in time surfaced most recently in a report this month by the newly formed United States Election Assistance Commission, which found that 18 states did not have systems in place to mail ballots at least 45 days before the election. A commissioner, Paul DeGregorio, said in an interview that states with late primaries did not have enough time to turn around and send out their ballots overseas.

Of the eight swing states that missed the 45-day mailing mark, only three will accept ballots that arrive after Election Day. Overseas voters have until Nov. 10 to send their ballots to Florida, which experienced problems four years ago that prompted widespread calls for improvements to overseas balloting.

In 2001, the General Accounting Office examined overseas voting and found numerous problems, from inadequate public education on the subject to late ballot mailings. In surveying small counties throughout the country, for example, the G.A.O., now the Government Accountability Office, found that 8.1 percent of the overseas votes had been thrown out mostly because they were late or not properly completed.

In response, the Pentagon placed voting assistance officers in military units worldwide and retooled its general Web site for voting assistance to help more Americans navigate the labyrinth of local voting procedures that apply overseas.

But some voters say the Web site remains difficult to use and that program workers have provided wrong information. Adam Hess, 26, a marketing coordinator in Ottawa, said he was told that he could not vote because he has never lived in the United States; he later learned that was not true since he received his citizenship through his American father.

In recent weeks the federal effort has also been clouded by a series of missteps that appear to have affected mostly civilian voters.

After blocking Internet systems in more than two dozen countries from gaining access to the general Web site, the Pentagon retreated last week and says it is trying to find a less encumbering way to protect against hackers.

Two weeks ago, Americans in various countries complained to voting rights groups that they received only ringing or busy signals when they tried to fax voter registrations to the number provided by the Pentagon.

"I come from Florida, and it's like, here we go again," said Timothy P. Mason, a telecommunications analyst in Britain who said he tried for two days before giving up.

In an e-mail message to one of the voting groups, a Pentagon official said that military installations were tying up the lines by faxing in hundreds of registrations in single batches, and that efforts would be made to accommodate the volume.

New questions have also arisen about the private contractor hired by the Pentagon to handle these faxes and unsealed completed ballots at its offices in Alexandria, Va. The company, Omega Technologies, was sued last year by Adams National Bank, which accused it of failing to pay off a loan of more than $500,000. In court records the bank also said Omega improperly gained access to a Pentagon computer to reroute payments to the company's new lender.

A lawyer for Omega, Daryle Jordan, denied wrongdoing by Omega and said it had countersued in contesting the debt claim. Pentagon officials said they were not aware of the litigation or another billing dispute, brought in 2002 by a Nashville resort. Omega settled the second dispute without admitting or denying accusations that it fabricated a Federal Express record. Mr. Jordan said Omega did not consider the litigation relevant to its Pentagon work.

An effort by the Pentagon to create a broad Internet voting program collapsed in February after criticism by security experts that the system was prone to manipulation.

Ten states so far have agreed to dispense ballots through the more limited service that the Pentagon is announcing this week, according to officials.

Nearly half of the states now also allow voters to fax back their ballots to election officials, but the loss of privacy is causing concern among some soldiers.

Scott Rafferty, a Democratic activist lawyer in California, said soldiers had contacted him to say they feared voting by fax. One, an Army sergeant in Germany who asked not to be identified for fear of retribution, explained his reservations.

"Some places you have to hand it off to get it faxed because the machine is behind the counter, at the finance office or personnel support battalion," the sergeant said. "They should come up with a better, more surefire system."

Alexis Rehrmann, Eric Schmitt and John Schwartz contributed reporting for this article.

Read More...

Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Expect more terror alerts before Nov. 2; Putting things in perspective

Expect a higher state of alert in the weeks leading up to the Nov. 2 election. The Bush administration will be doing everything it can to scare the pants off the citizens of the USA to get them to either be afraid to vote, or to think that a vote for them is a vote for safety. Anyone that follows that logic will be making a grave mistake. Remember that it was the Bush administration that took its eye off the ball and ignored all advice and all the warnings leading up to 9/11. Remember that when Bush was told that the USA was "under attack" he sat for seven (7) very long minutes doing nothing to ensure the safety and security of this country or its citizens. Action during those seven (7) very long minutes could have potentially saved the lives of some in Washington DC. If not for the actions of the passengers on one plane, Bush's failure to lead during those critical minutes could have cost thousands of more lives.

Here's a way every citizen can put this in perspective:
You are at work in a meeting. You are the head of your household. Someone walks into the meeting and whispers in your ear that your family is "under attack."

Do you
(a) Just sit there waiting for a break in the proceedings, or
(b) Excuse yourself politely and then go and do everything in your power to protect your family?

If you picked (a), then your family either perished or was seriously wounded during your failure to act, and if they survived they are currently in extreme danger and cannot depend on you in an emergency.

If the lives of your family members have any value to you at all, then you cannot in good conscience vote for George W. Bush.

Read More...

Democrats Add Tens of Thousands of New Voters in Swing States

airamericaradio.com

Democrats Add Tens of Thousands of New Voters in Swing States



A sweeping voter registration campaign in heavily Democratic areas has added tens of thousands of new voters to the rolls in the swing states of Ohio and Florida, a surge that has far exceeded the efforts of Republicans in both states, a review of registration data shows.

The analysis by The New York Times of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio - primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods - new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas. A similar pattern is apparent in Florida.

Read More...

Ashcroft Record: 0 for 5,000 in Terrorism Cases

Ashcroft Record: 0 for 5,000 in Terrorism Cases



Earlier this month a federal judge threw out the only jury conviction the Justice Department has obtained on a terrorism charge since 9/11. According to the Nation's David Cole "the Detroit case had marked the only terrorist conviction obtained from the Justice Department's detention of more than 5,000 foreign nationals in anti-terrorism sweeps since 9/11. So Ashcroft's record is 0 for 5,000. When the attorney general was locking these men up in the immediate wake of the attacks, he held almost daily press conferences to announce how many 'suspected terrorists' had been detained. No press conference has been forthcoming to announce that exactly none of them have turned out to be actual terrorists."

Read more here: http://www.alternet.org/rights/19948/

Read More...

Panel Won't Sign Agreement but Will Enforce Stipulations

Buried at the end of this article is the following:
"the Fox News Channel ... is telecasting the first debate on Thursday for the major news networks planning to carry it"

The New York Times
September 28, 2004

Panel Won't Sign Agreement but Will Enforce Stipulations
By JIM RUTENBERG

WASHINGTON, Sept. 27 - The Commission on Presidential Debates said Monday that it would enforce many of the stipulations agreed to by the campaigns of President Bush and Senator John Kerry, but that it would not sign the agreement itself - which aides to Mr. Bush had indicated was a prerequisite for his participation in the debates.

The 32-page agreement, released last Monday, included a provision that gave the candidates the right to walk away from its terms if the commission did not sign it. Mr. Kerry's campaign aides indicated last week that they would not make an issue of whether the commission signed the agreement, something it has never been asked to do before. Mr. Bush's campaign indicated that it might.

But after the commission said Monday that its decision not to sign the agreement was final, Mr. Bush's campaign said it was satisfied with a statement the commission posted on its Web site that said "the debate format rules will be enforced as stated in the Sept. 20 memorandum."

Mark Wallace, Mr. Bush's deputy campaign manager, said, "We're pleased that the commission has agreed to uphold the terms of the agreement."

Still, officials of the debate commission said they were agreeing primarily to those things Mr. Bush's aides had emphasized as especially important to them: a strict time limit on candidate responses, an electronic warning when candidates exceed their speaking time that can be seen and heard by viewers at home, and a prohibition against the candidates' directly posing questions to each other.

One official said the commission would probably not abide by the agreement's stipulation that the audience at the Oct. 8 town-hall-style debate in Missouri be composed of people who are "soft supporters" of Mr. Kerry and Mr. Bush, meaning they had not solidly made up their minds but were leaning one way or another. The commission had proposed that the audience be filled with strictly undecided voters.

But a senior Bush campaign official noted that the commission said in its statement, "There will be no departure from the terms of the memorandum without prior consultation with and approval by the appropriate campaign representatives."

"I'm unaware of any such prior approval or consultation,'' said the official, who said he expected the point to be worked out between the parties.

Debate commission officials also said they could not and would not enforce the agreement's stipulation that network cameras refrain from showing Mr. Bush when Mr. Kerry was speaking, and vice versa.

"There are certain things that are clearly beyond our control," said Frank J. Fahrenkopf Jr., a co-chairman of the commission. "We don't control the feed so we don't know what the networks are going to show; that's not within our purview."

Paul Schur, a spokesman for the Fox News Channel, which is telecasting the first debate on Thursday for the major news networks planning to carry it, said, "Because of journalistic standards, we're not going to follow outside restrictions."

Mr. Fahrenkopf also said that the debate moderators had no plans to sign the agreement either, despite a provision in the memorandum allowing the campaigns to replace those who refuse to sign. Aides to both candidates indicated that they would not push the issue.


Read More...

Truths Worth Telling

The New York Times
September 28, 2004

Truths Worth Telling
By DANIEL ELLSBERG

Kensington, Calif. — On a tape recording made in the Oval Office on June 14, 1971, H. R. Haldeman, Richard Nixon's chief of staff, can be heard citing Donald Rumsfeld, then a White House aide, on the effect of the Pentagon Papers, news of which had been published on the front page of that morning's newspaper:

"Rumsfeld was making this point this morning,'' Haldeman says. "To the ordinary guy, all this is a bunch of gobbledygook. But out of the gobbledygook comes a very clear thing: you can't trust the government; you can't believe what they say, and you can't rely on their judgment. And the implicit infallibility of presidents, which has been an accepted thing in America, is badly hurt by this, because it shows that people do things the president wants to do even though it's wrong, and the president can be wrong."

He got it exactly right. But it's a lesson that each generation of voters and each new set of leaders have to learn for themselves. Perhaps Mr. Rumsfeld - now secretary of defense, of course - has reflected on this truth recently as he has contemplated the deteriorating conditions in Iraq. According to the government's own reporting, the situation there is far bleaker than Mr. Rumsfeld has recognized or President Bush has acknowledged on the campaign trail.

Understandably, the American people are reluctant to believe that their president has made errors of judgment that have cost American lives. To convince them otherwise, there is no substitute for hard evidence: documents, photographs, transcripts. Often the only way for the public to get such evidence is if a dedicated public servant decides to release it without permission.

Such a leak occurred recently with the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, which was prepared in July. Reports of the estimate's existence and overall pessimism - but not its actual conclusions - have prompted a long-overdue debate on the realities and prospects of the war. But its judgments of the relative likelihood and the strength of evidence pointing to the worst possibilities remain undisclosed. Since the White House has refused to release the full report, someone else should do so.

Leakers are often accused of being partisan, and undoubtedly many of them are. But the measure of their patriotism should be the accuracy and the importance of the information they reveal. It would be a great public service to reveal a true picture of the administration's plans for Iraq - especially before this week's debate on foreign policy between Mr. Bush and Senator John Kerry.

The military's real estimates of the projected costs - in manpower, money and casualties - of various long-term plans for Iraq should be made public, in addition to the more immediate costs in American and Iraqi lives of the planned offensive against resistant cities in Iraq that appears scheduled for November. If military or intelligence experts within the government predict disastrous political consequences in Iraq from such urban attacks, these judgments should not remain secret.

Leaks on the timing of this offensive - and on possible call-up of reserves just after the election - take me back to Election Day 1964, which I spent in an interagency working group in the State Department. The purpose of our meeting was to examine plans to expand the war - precisely the policy that voters soundly rejected at the polls that day.

We couldn't wait until the next day to hold our meeting because the plan for the bombing of North Vietnam had to be ready as soon as possible. But we couldn't have held our meeting the day before because news of it might have been leaked - not by me, I'm sorry to say. And President Lyndon Johnson might not have won in a landslide had voters known he was lying when he said that his administration sought "no wider war."

Seven years and almost 50,000 American deaths later, after I had leaked the Pentagon Papers, I had a conversation with Senator Wayne Morse of Oregon, one of the two senators who had voted against the Tonkin Gulf resolution in August 1964. If I had leaked the documents then, he said, the resolution never would have passed.

That was hard to hear. But in 1964 it hadn't occurred to me to break my vow of secrecy. Though I knew that the war was a mistake, my loyalties then were to the secretary of defense and the president. It took five years of war before I recognized the higher loyalty all officials owe to the Constitution, the rule of law, the soldiers in harm's way or their fellow citizens.

Like Robert McNamara, under whom I served, Mr. Rumsfeld appears to inspire great loyalty among his aides. As the scandal at Abu Ghraib shows, however, there are more important principles. Mr. Rumsfeld might not have seen the damning photographs and the report of Maj. Gen. Antonio M. Taguba as soon as he did - just as he would never have seen the Pentagon Papers 33 years ago - if some anonymous people in his own department had not bypassed the chain of command and disclosed them, without authorization, to the news media. And without public awareness of the scandal, reforms would be less likely.

A federal judge has ordered the administration to issue a list of all documents relating to the scandal by Oct. 15. Will Mr. Rumsfeld release the remaining photos, which depict treatment that he has described as even worse? It's highly unlikely, especially before Nov. 2. Meanwhile, the full Taguba report remains classified, and the findings of several other inquiries into military interrogation and detention practices have yet to be released.

All administrations classify far more information than is justifiable in a democracy - and the Bush administration has been especially secretive. Information should never be classified as secret merely because it is embarrassing or incriminating. But in practice, in this as in any administration, no information is guarded more closely.

Surely there are officials in the present administration who recognize that the United States has been misled into a war in Iraq, but who have so far kept their silence - as I long did about the war in Vietnam. To them I have a personal message: don't repeat my mistakes. Don't wait until more troops are sent, and thousands more have died, before telling truths that could end a war and save lives. Do what I wish I had done in 1964: go to the press, to Congress, and document your claims.

Technology may make it easier to tell your story, but the decision to do so will be no less difficult. The personal risks of making disclosures embarrassing to your superiors are real. If you are identified as the source, your career will be over; friendships will be lost; you may even be prosecuted. But some 140,000 Americans are risking their lives every day in Iraq. Our nation is in urgent need of comparable moral courage from its public officials.

Daniel Ellsberg is the author of "Secrets: A Memoir of Vietnam and the Pentagon Papers."

Read More...

Swagger vs. Substance

The New York Times
September 28, 2004

Swagger vs. Substance
By PAUL KRUGMAN

Let's face it: whatever happens in Thursday's debate, cable news will proclaim President Bush the winner. This will reflect the political bias so evident during the party conventions. It will also reflect the undoubted fact that Mr. Bush does a pretty good Clint Eastwood imitation.

But what will the print media do? Let's hope they don't do what they did four years ago.

Interviews with focus groups just after the first 2000 debate showed Al Gore with a slight edge. Post-debate analysis should have widened that edge. After all, during the debate, Mr. Bush told one whopper after another - about his budget plans, about his prescription drug proposal and more. The fact-checking in the next day's papers should have been devastating.

But as Adam Clymer pointed out yesterday on the Op-Ed page of The Times, front-page coverage of the 2000 debates emphasized not what the candidates said but their "body language." After the debate, the lead stories said a lot about Mr. Gore's sighs, but nothing about Mr. Bush's lies. And even the fact-checking pieces "buried inside the newspaper" were, as Mr. Clymer delicately puts it, "constrained by an effort to balance one candidate's big mistakes" - that is, Mr. Bush's lies - "against the other's minor errors."

The result of this emphasis on the candidates' acting skills rather than their substance was that after a few days, Mr. Bush's defeat in the debate had been spun into a victory.

This time, the first debate will be about foreign policy, an area where Mr. Bush ought to be extremely vulnerable. After all, his grandiose promises to rid the world of evildoers have all come to naught.

Exhibit A is, of course, Osama bin Laden, whom Mr. Bush promised to get "dead or alive," then dropped from his speeches after a botched operation at Tora Bora let him get away. And it's not just bin Laden: most analysts believe that Al Qaeda, which might have been crushed if Mr. Bush hadn't diverted resources and attention to the war in Iraq, is as dangerous as ever.

There's also North Korea, which Mr. Bush declared part of the "axis of evil," then ignored when its regime started building nuclear weapons. Recently, when a reporter asked Mr. Bush about reports that North Korea has half a dozen bombs, he simply shrugged.

Most important, of course, is Iraq, an unnecessary war, which - after initial boasts of victory - has turned into an even worse disaster than the war's opponents expected.

The Kerry campaign is making hay over Mr. Bush's famous flight-suit stunt, but for me, Mr. Bush's worst moment came two months later, when he declared: "There are some who feel like the conditions are such that they can attack us there. My answer is, bring 'em on." When they really did come on, he blinked: U.S. forces - obviously under instructions to hold down casualties at least until November - have ceded much of Iraq to the insurgents.

During the debate, Mr. Bush will try to cover for this dismal record with swagger, and with attacks on his opponent. Will the press play Karl Rove's game by, as Mr. Clymer puts it, confusing political coverage with drama criticism, or will it do its job and check the candidates' facts?

There have been some encouraging signs lately. There was a disturbing interlude in which many news organizations seemed to accept false claims that Iraq had calmed down after the transfer of sovereignty. But now, as the violence escalates, they seem willing to ask hard questions about Mr. Bush's fantasy version of the situation in Iraq. For example, a recent Reuters analysis pointed out that independent sources contradict his assertions about everything "from police training and reconstruction to preparations for January elections."

Mr. Bush is also getting less of a free ride than he used to when he smears his opponent. Last week, after Mr. Bush declared that Mr. Kerry "would prefer the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein to the situation in Iraq today," The Associated Press pointed out that this "twisted his rival's words" - and then quoted what John Kerry actually said.

Nonetheless, on Thursday night there will be a temptation to revert to drama criticism - to emphasize how the candidates looked and acted, and push analysis of what they said, and whether it was true, to the inside pages. With so much at stake, the public deserves better.

Read More...

Barriers to Student Voting

The New York Times
September 28, 2004

Barriers to Student Voting

In the last presidential election, about 37 percent of citizens between the ages of 18 and 24 voted, a sharp decline from 1972, when more than half did. The relatively low participation rate of young people is often attributed to apathy or the distraction of other things in their lives. But a lack of support, and sometimes outright hostility, from elections officials is a significant factor. With issues like the Iraq war and budget deficits that could last for decades in the forefront of the presidential campaign, young people have more reason than ever to fight for their right to vote - and to cast their ballots on Nov. 2.

It is nice to think that elections officials want to do everything they can to help young voters. But the truth is, many cities and towns with colleges and universities regard student voters - who are more transient than the average resident, and whose political views also may be different - as a challenge to the established order. As a result, local elections officials often discourage students from registering and voting from their campus addresses, even though the Supreme Court has ruled that they have the right to do so.

In Texas this year, a county district attorney threatened to prosecute students from Prairie View A&M University if they tried to register. The students had to file a lawsuit before he withdrew the threat and apologized. A student at Hamilton College in Utica, N.Y., was told that he was not a "permanent resident" and had to vote from his parents' home in another state. And a Fox affiliate in Tucson recently carried a report quoting an elections official who warned, falsely, that University of Arizona students who registered from their dorms might be committing a felony.

Even when they are not actively discouraging young voters, election officials are often unwilling to take steps to make it easier for them to vote. They often resist appeals to put polling places on campus, one of the best ways to make students feel included in the electoral process. And they devote too few resources to registration drives among students, whose rapid turnover makes them a group that requires special attention.

College and university administrators also bear some of the blame. Under the Higher Education Act of 1998, colleges and universities receiving federal funds must make a good-faith effort to distribute voter registration forms to every student, and to make those forms widely available on campus. But a newly released study by Harvard University's Institute of Politics and the Chronicle of Higher Education found that fewer than 17 percent of schools are in full compliance, and one-third are not even making minimal efforts.

An array of public-minded groups, like the New Voters Project, Declare Yourself and Rock the Vote, are working this year to register and mobilize young voters. Their efforts are much needed, and they appear to be paying off. The nonpartisan New Voters Project says it has already registered more than 122,000 young voters in Wisconsin, where the margin of victory in the 2000 presidential race was fewer than 6,000 votes. But these groups are reporting that elections offices in several states have a large backlog of registrations to process. These offices should immediately hire temporary workers, if necessary, to ensure that everyone who met the registration deadline is on the voting rolls by Nov. 2.

Grass-roots efforts like the New Voters Project are important, but reaching out to young voters should not be left to volunteers. Elections officials and institutions of higher education must do more to remove the barriers that still too often stand between young people and the ballot box.

Read More...

Inquiry on Medicare Finds Improper Limits

The New York Times
September 28, 2004

Inquiry on Medicare Finds Improper Limits
By ROBERT PEAR

WASHINGTON, Sept. 27 - Federal investigators said Monday that the Bush administration had improperly allowed some private health plans to limit Medicare patients' choice of health care providers, including doctors, nursing homes and home care agencies.

The investigators, from the Government Accountability Office, also said that the private plans had increased out-of-pocket costs for the elderly and had not saved money for the government, contrary to predictions by Medicare officials.

The study, the most comprehensive assessment of a demonstration project that the administration has described as the best hope for Medicare's future, focused on the program's experience with a form of managed care known as preferred provider organizations, the type of health insurance most popular among people under 65.

Medicare is spending $650 to $750 a year more for each beneficiary in such private plans than it would have spent if the same people stayed in traditional Medicare, the investigators said.

In negotiations over the Medicare bill last year, the administration pressed for more money and authority to foster the growth of preferred provider plans, saying they would be more efficient and would save money over time. Administration officials reiterated that view on Monday.

After reviewing the report, Dr. Mark B. McClellan, administrator of the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, insisted that private plans were "an attractive option'' that would save money and improve coverage for beneficiaries.

The accountability office, a nonpartisan investigative arm of Congress, said the administration "exceeded its authority'' by allowing P.P.O.'s to limit patients' choices of providers offering skilled nursing and home health care, dental care and routine physical examinations.

In many cases, it said, the private plans covered such services only when beneficiaries used health care providers designated by the plans themselves. Beneficiaries who went outside the network of preferred providers were often "liable for the full cost of their care,'' the report said.

"By law,'' it said, "these plans should have been required to cover all services in their benefit packages even if those services were obtained from providers outside the plans' provider networks.'' But, it said, the administration waived this requirement for 29 of the 33 preferred provider plans, allowing them to deny coverage for some services obtained outside their networks.

The administration "did not have the authority to allow plans to restrict enrollees' choice of providers'' as it did, the report said.

Normally, preferred provider plans encourage patients to use certain doctors and hospitals, but allow them to use other health care providers for an additional cost.

The accountability office, formerly the General Accounting Office, found that the administration had "improperly waived the requirement'' for P.P.O.'s to let Medicare patients choose their health care providers.

The findings are a significant setback for the administration, which wants to triple enrollment in private plans in five years. About 4.7 million of the 41 million Medicare beneficiaries, or 11.5 percent, are now in private plans, most of them H.M.O.'s.

In January 2003, the Bush administration began the demonstration project encouraging beneficiaries to join P.P.O.'s, which in theory offer more choice than H.M.O.'s.

Ten million beneficiaries were eligible for the preferred provider plans, but only 105,000 had enrolled as of last month, the report said.

To comply with the law, the accountability office said, Medicare officials should immediately instruct these private plans to provide coverage for "all plan services furnished by any provider'' willing to accept their payments.

Dr. McClellan said, "We will comply with the recommendations made in the report.'' Moreover, he said, the government will work with private plans to ensure they follow the law.

Senator Max Baucus of Montana, the senior Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, who requested the report, said the administration's claims about private plans were "not based on reality.''

Mr. Baucus, who voted for the new Medicare law, said, "While I believe in choice, I also believe that private plan options, including P.P.O.'s, should be added to Medicare only if they bring value to beneficiaries and taxpayers.'' Contrary to assertions by Medicare officials, Mr. Baucus said, auditors found that P.P.O.'s "are more expensive, to both taxpayers and enrollees.''

To draw P.P.O.'s into Medicare, the report said, the Bush administration offered to pay them more, waived stringent standards for the quality of care and removed limits on the costs that beneficiaries might be required to pay. As a result, it said, these plans were "subject to no statutory or regulatory limits on cost-sharing'' for beneficiaries.

The report was the fourth in two years to find that the administration had skirted federal law in pursuing health policy objectives. In July 2002 and last January, the accountability office said the administration had improperly allowed states to divert money from the Children's Health Insurance Program to provide coverage for childless adults.

Earlier this month the auditing agency said that the Bush administration had illegally withheld data from Congress on the projected cost of the new Medicare law.

The demonstration project, offering P.P.O. plans in 214 counties, runs through 2005. Medicare officials hope to offer such plans in all parts of the country in 2006.

In the future, Dr. McClellan said, "P.P.O.'s will be a familiar and popular choice.''

Read More...

Reporters Put Under Scrutiny in C.I.A. Leak

The New York Times
September 28, 2004

Reporters Put Under Scrutiny in C.I.A. Leak
By ADAM LIPTAK

Walter Pincus, a 71-year-old Washington Post reporter who has earned the respect and envy of his colleagues for the government contacts he has cultivated in more than 30 years at the paper, walked into a conference room at a Washington law firm two weeks ago and read a statement.

"As someone who covers national security and intelligence, I depend on confidential sources more than most reporters," he told Patrick J. Fitzgerald, the special prosecutor appointed to investigate the disclosure to journalists of the identity of a covert C.I.A. agent, Valerie Plame. "My sources take a chance when they trust me with information that could cost them their jobs or have other serious consequences. In turn, I will protect them."

Mr. Pincus proceeded to answer Mr. Fitzgerald's questions about two once-confidential conversations with administration officials, identifying one person. Mr. Pincus, who says he did so with the officials' blessings, became at least the fourth reporter to testify in the investigation.

Leak investigations are often halfhearted and one-sided enterprises. Suspected leakers are questioned, not always vigorously or under oath, and the source of the disclosure is seldom found. The journalists who could say for sure are almost never subpoenaed.

The Plame case is different. This is largely because, unlike most leaks, the disclosure of an undercover intelligence agent's identity is a felony. The disclosure of Ms. Plame's identity, moreover, may have been motivated by politics. And the investigation inside the government, in which the president, the vice president and many other officials have been questioned, seems to have been both exhaustive and inconclusive.

The only remaining witnesses to the crime are the journalists who received the information about Ms. Plame, leaving them to make agonizing choices against a backdrop of diminishing legal protection. In recent years, courts have become increasingly skeptical of a journalistic article of faith: that the benefits to society of the information provided by confidential sources outweigh the costs to the justice system of allowing reporters to protect their sources.

Mr. Pincus and the other reporters who have testified, some under the threat of jail, all say they found an appropriate middle ground. They say that their sources had authorized them to testify and that they had betrayed no promises. Mr. Pincus said one official gave him permission to repeat a conversation but not to name the official. The Post reported on the case in October, citing a journalist there, later identified as Mr. Pincus.

But experts in law and journalism are nonetheless at odds over whether the spectacle of reporters testifying about people who gave them information in confidence sends the wrong message, to the public and to potential sources. Some say it may do lasting damage to the bonds of trust built between sources and journalists over several decades.

"Every time I hear about one of these reporters going in to speak about their sources, my stomach drops to my shoes," said Jane Kirtley, a professor of media ethics and law at the University of Minnesota. "We're in a crisis on this. I'm absolutely terrified about how this is going to turn out for media credibility."

Brian A. Sun, a former federal prosecutor who now represents the atomic scientist Wen Ho Lee, said the press should be more concerned about publishing classified information than about protecting sources.

"It's aiding and abetting a crime," Mr. Sun said of the journalists who published Ms. Plame's name.

He added that journalists should face the same sanctions as other citizens. "People are compelled to talk all the time," he said, "or they get thrown in the can for contempt. Very few prosecutors have been willing to take on the press, historically. Pat Fitzgerald is a tough guy. Other prosecutors may now be willing to take on the press."Mr. Fitzgerald is using a new tactic that may have implications in future investigations. He has asked White House officials to sign forms waiving the confidentiality of any discussions with reporters.

In addition to the four reporters who have testified in the Plame matter, Judith Miller of The New York Times is fighting a subpoena in the investigation. And Robert Novak, the columnist who identified Ms. Plame in the first place as "an agency operative on weapons of mass destruction," citing "two senior administration officials" as his sources, is not saying whether he has been subpoenaed or whether he has provided any information to prosecutors.

The subpoenas are part of what lawyers call an alarming trend.

Several reporters have been held in contempt for refusing to name their sources in a civil suit brought by Dr. Lee saying the government committed privacy violations. Dr. Lee, a scientist at the Los Alamos nuclear laboratory in New Mexico, was suspected of espionage in 1999 but ultimately pleaded guilty to a lesser charge. A television reporter in Rhode Island has been held in contempt for refusing to say who gave him a surveillance tape.

Mr. Fitzgerald, who was named a special prosecutor in the Plame case after Attorney General John Ashcroft recused himself, is also looking into whether Ms. Miller and another Times reporter were tipped off about developments in his investigation of an Islamic charity. In that case, he is acting as the United States attorney in Chicago.

All these reporters face difficult legal terrain. Under a 1972 Supreme Court decision, Branzburg v. Hayes, reporters have essentially no protection from grand jury subpoenas. An influential federal appeals court judge in Chicago, Richard A. Posner, ruled last summer that reporters had little right to resist subpoenas for their sources and information in any setting. In the Plame case, Thomas F. Hogan, chief judge of Federal District Court in Washington, has repeatedly ruled that reporters subpoenaed in the case must testify.

The four reporters who have testified in the Plame case say they talked about conversations with I. Lewis Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff.

Mr. Pincus, the last to testify, also discussed a conversation with another administration official. And Matthew Cooper, a reporter for Time magazine who testified on Aug. 23 about Mr. Libby, received a second subpoena on Sept. 14, for information from other officials. Mr. Cooper is fighting that subpoena.

Earl Caldwell, a journalism professor who was involved in the 1972 Supreme Court case as a reporter for The Times, said he was troubled by the reporters' decisions to testify.

"In the public mind, it gets confusing," Mr. Caldwell said. "How are all these reporters going in and testifying? We're getting in a position where people will see us as an arm of the government."

Mr. Libby's lawyer, Joseph A. Tate, said Mr. Libby had signed a form authorizing reporters to tell prosecutors about their conversations with him.

But lawyers for the reporters said the reporters refused to accept Mr. Libby's waiver at face value. It was, they said, possible that Mr. Libby signed it because refusing to do so would cast suspicion on him or endanger his job.

The reporters relied instead on conversations with Mr. Libby or messages conveyed by lawyers. "I told them they had nothing to hide and could rely upon the waiver," Mr. Tate said.

Mr. Pincus said: "Under the circumstances, I had complete confidence in the assurances I received. I refused to do anything that would identify or tend to identify a confidential source."

James C. Goodale, a lawyer at Debevoise & Plimpton in New York and a former general counsel of The New York Times Company, said that none of the reporters should have testified and that they had done grave damage to a bond of trust that had roots in the 1970's.

A reporter for The Times, M. A. Farber, spent 40 days in jail in 1978 rather than name a source. "You ought not go back to a source from whom you have obtained confidential information and ask to be absolved of your obligation," Mr. Farber said. "The reporter always has the option of keeping his mouth shut. If he isn't willing to accept that responsibility, he oughtn't be in the game in the first place."

Robin Bierstedt, a deputy general counsel at Time Inc., disputed that reasoning. "Confidential source protection is based on the reporter's protection of the source," Ms. Bierstedt said. "If the source no longer wants that protection, and informs the reporter of that fact, the reporter should be free to testify, if he or she chooses."

The current investigation has its roots in a critical Op-Ed commentary published in The Times on July 6, 2003, about one of the justifications offered by the Bush administration for the war in Iraq. The article, by Joseph C. Wilson IV, a former ambassador, recounted a trip he had made to Niger for the C.I.A. Mr. Wilson concluded that the administration later manipulated intelligence about whether Iraq had sought to buy uranium from Niger.

In the days after the commentary appeared, a number of reporters were told that Mr. Wilson's wife, Ms. Plame, was a covert C.I.A. agent.

The motive for the disclosure of Ms. Plame's identity is unclear. Mr. Wilson has said it was payback for his criticism. Others have suggested that it was meant to undermine Mr. Wilson's conclusions by dismissing his trip as a boondoggle arranged by his wife.

Either way, the disclosure may well have violated a 1982 law that makes it a crime for people with access to classified information to intentionally disclose agents' identities. The law does not generally apply to people without such access, like reporters.

The real mystery in the investigation, lawyers involved in it say, is what Mr. Novak has done. Mr. Novak's lawyer, James Hamilton, declined to comment. There are four essential possibilities.

Mr. Novak may not have been subpoenaed, which would be curious. He may have asserted the reporter's privilege, but there is no reason to think that Judge Hogan would have ruled in his favor.

He may have asserted his rights under the Fifth Amendment. But Mr. Novak faces no real peril under the 1982 law, and Mr. Fitzgerald could in any event require him to testify by offering him immunity. Or Mr. Novak may have testified.

Mr. Wilson said he was distressed about the conduct of White House officials. "None have stepped forward and said, 'Yeah, I'm the one who made the disclosure to Bob Novak and others,' " he said.

The investigation, Mr. Wilson added, carries its own risks. "Anything that further circumscribes the ability of the press to protect its sources is bad for the American people," he said.

Read More...

Prewar Assessment on Iraq Saw Chance of Strong Divisions

The New York Times
September 28, 2004

Prewar Assessment on Iraq Saw Chance of Strong Divisions
By DOUGLAS JEHL and DAVID E. SANGER

WASHINGTON, Sept. 27 - The same intelligence unit that produced a gloomy report in July about the prospect of growing instability in Iraq warned the Bush administration about the potential costly consequences of an American-led invasion two months before the war began, government officials said Monday.

The estimate came in two classified reports prepared for President Bush in January 2003 by the National Intelligence Council, an independent group that advises the director of central intelligence. The assessments predicted that an American-led invasion of Iraq would increase support for political Islam and would result in a deeply divided Iraqi society prone to violent internal conflict.

One of the reports also warned of a possible insurgency against the new Iraqi government or American-led forces, saying that rogue elements from Saddam Hussein's government could work with existing terrorist groups or act independently to wage guerrilla warfare, the officials said. The assessments also said a war would increase sympathy across the Islamic world for some terrorist objectives, at least in the short run, the officials said.

The contents of the two assessments had not been previously disclosed. They were described by the officials after two weeks in which the White House had tried to minimize the council's latest report, which was prepared this summer and read by senior officials early this month.

Last week, Mr. Bush dismissed the latest intelligence reports, saying its authors were "just guessing'' about the future, though he corrected himself later, calling it an "estimate.''

The assessments, meant to address the regional implications and internal challenges that Iraq would face after Mr. Hussein's ouster, said it was unlikely that Iraq would split apart after an American invasion, the officials said. But they said there was a significant chance that domestic groups would engage in violent internal conflict with one another unless an occupying force prevented them from doing so.

Senior White House officials, including Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, have contended that some of the early predictions provided to the White House by outside experts of what could go wrong in Iraq, including secular strife, have not come to pass. But President Bush has acknowledged a "miscalculation'' about the virulency of the insurgency that would rise against the American occupation, though he insisted that it was simply an outgrowth of the speed of the initial military victory in 2003.

The officials outlined the reports after the columnist Robert Novak, in a column published Monday in The Washington Post, wrote that a senior intelligence official had said at a West Coast gathering last week that the White House had disregarded warnings from intelligence agencies that a war in Iraq would intensify anti-American hostility in the Muslim world. Mr. Novak identified the official as Paul R. Pillar, the national intelligence officer for the Near East and South Asia, and criticized him for making remarks that Mr. Novak said were critical of the administration.

The National Intelligence Council is an independent group, made up of outside academics and long-time intelligence professionals. The C.I.A. describes it as the intelligence community's "center for midterm and long-term strategic thinking.'' Its main task is to produce National Intelligence Estimates, the most formal reports outlining the consensus of intelligence agencies. But it also produces less formal assessments, like the ones about Iraq it presented in January 2003.

One of the intelligence documents described the building of democracy in Iraq as a long, difficult and potentially turbulent process with potential for backsliding into authoritarianism, Iraq's traditional political model, the officials said.

The assessments were described by three government officials who have seen or been briefed on the documents. The officials spoke on condition that neither they nor their agencies be identified. None of the officials are affiliated in any way with the campaigns of Mr. Bush or Senator John Kerry. The officials, who were interviewed separately, declined to quote directly from the documents, but said they were speaking out to present an accurate picture of the prewar warnings.

The officials' descriptions portray assessments that are gloomier than the predictions by some administration officials, most notably those of Vice President Dick Cheney. But in general, the warnings about anti-American sentiment and instability appear to have been upheld by events, and their disclosure could prove politically damaging to the White House, which has already had to contend with the disclosure that the National Intelligence Estimate prepared by the council in July presented a far darker prognosis for Iraq through the end of 2005 than Mr. Bush has done in his statements.

The reports issued by the intelligence council are of two basic types: those that try to assess intelligence data, like the October 2002 document that assessed the state of Iraq's unconventional weapons programs, and broader predictions about foreign political developments.

The group's National Intelligence Estimate about Iraqi weapons has now been widely discredited for wildly overestimating the country's capabilities. Members of the intelligence council have complained that they were pressured to write the document too quickly and that important qualifiers were buried.

The group's recent National Intelligence Estimate, prepared in July this year, with its gloomy picture of Iraq's future, was described by White House officials in the past two weeks as an academic document that contained little evidence and little that was new.

"It was finished in July, and not circulated by the intelligence community until the end of August,'' said one senior administration official. "That's not exactly what you do with an urgent document.''

Mr. Pillar, who has held his post since October 2000, is highly regarded within the C.I.A. But he has been a polarizing figure within the administration, particularly within the Defense Department, where senior civilians who were among the most vigorous champions of a war in Iraq derided him as being too dismissive of the threat posed by Mr. Hussein.

A C.I.A. spokesman said Monday that Mr. Pillar was not available for comment and that his comments at the West Coast session had been made on the condition that he not be identified. An intelligence official said Mr. Pillar had supervised the drafting of the document, but the official emphasized that it reflected the views of 15 intelligence agencies, including the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, and the State Department's bureau of Intelligence and Research.

A spokesman for the National Security Council, Sean McCormack, said Monday that "we don't comment on intelligence and classified reports," and he would not say whether Mr. Bush had read the January 2003 reports. But he said "the president was fully aware of all the challenges prior to making the decision to go to war, and we addressed these challenges in our policies."

"And we also addressed these challenges in public," he added.

A senior administration official likened Mr. Bush's decision to a patient's decision to have risky surgery, even if doctors warn that there could be serious side effects. "We couldn't live with the status quo," the official said, "because as a result of the status quo in the Middle East, we were dying, and we saw the evidence of that on Sept. 11."

Officials who have read the July 2004 National Intelligence Estimate have said that even as a best-case situation, it predicted a period of tenuous stability for Iraq between now and the end of 2005. The worst of three cases cited in the document was that developments could lead to civil war, the officials have said. Some Democratic senators have asked that the document be declassified, but administration officials have called that prospect unlikely.

The White House has also sought to minimize the significance of the estimate, with Mr. Bush saying that intelligence agencies had laid out "several scenarios that said, life could be lousy, life could be O.K. or life could be better, and they were just guessing as to what the conditions might be like.'' Mr. Bush later corrected himself, saying that he should have used the word estimate.

Democrats have contrasted the dark tone of the intelligence report with the more upbeat descriptions of Iraq's prospects offered by the administration. The White House has defended its approach, saying that it is the job of intelligence analysts to identify challenges, and the job of policy makers to overcome them. But administration officials have also emphasized that the White House was not given a copy of the document until Aug. 31, only about two weeks before it was made public by The New York Times.

In an interview on "Fox News Sunday," Secretary of State Colin L. Powell acknowledged that "we have seen an increase in anti-Americanism in the Muslim world'' since the war began. Mr. Powell also said the insurgency in Iraq was "getting worse'' as forces opposed to the United States and the new Iraqi leadership remained "determined to disrupt the election'' set for January.

Read More...